
The state of Jammu & Kashmir is about to witness another round of assembly elections. These elections, more often than not, have drawn attention to themselves, for wrong reasons rather than the right ones.
The Election Commission of India (ECI) has frozen the Electoral Rolls (ERs) for the 2008 assembly elections, as required.
According to the 2008 Electoral Rolls (ERs), there are 64,97,593 voters in the State of Jammu and Kashmir for the Assembly elections to be held in November-December 2008. These voters are distributed in 87 constituencies of the state.
In the 87-member Assembly, the Kashmir valley chooses 46 MLAs, the Jammu province elects 37 MLAs and the Ladakh region elects only four MLAs. The Ladakh region has only 152,513 voters and this means that on an average, each constituency of the region has 38,128 voters.
Jammu Kashmir Ladakh
30,84,417 32,60,663 1,52,513
Constituencies
37 46 4
Average
83,362 70,884 38,128
For the sake of comparison between Jammu and Kashmir regions, we will leave the Ladakh region voters outside and statistics out.
Now, let us compare Jammu and Kashmir regions.
The total number of voters in Kashmir region is higher as compared to the Jammu region. The difference in the number of voters is 32,60,663-30,84,417= 176,246.
Interestingly, however, the total number of voters per constituency in Jammu is higher than voter per constituency in Kashmir. This difference can be worked out by subtracting one from the other 83,362-70,884= 12,478.
This means that on an average each of the 37 constituencies of Jammu has 12,478 voters as compared to the Kashmir constituencies. The total number of ADDITIONAL voters can be worked out by multiplying the two figures.
12,478x 37= 4,61,686. This is the total ADDITIONAL voter number in Jammu.
EQUATION 1:
Total Additional Voters in Jammu = 4,61,686
Average size of a constituency in Kashmir= 70,884
Now, by dividing the number of ADDITIONAL voters in the Jammu region by the number of voters in an average constituency of Kashmir, you will get the number of ADDITIONAL seats that should be given to Jammu.
4,61,686/70,884= 6.51 (Rounded off to next whole digit, it becomes 7.
This means that if the number of voters in Jammu were to be the same as that of Kashmir, the Jammu region will have to be given an additional 7 LEGISLATORS. The number of voters in Jammu will now become 37+ 7 = 44.
EQUATION 2:
Total voters in Jammur= 30,84,417
Average size of a constituency in Kashmir= 70,884
Now, if the same number of voters were to elect an MLA in Jammu as in Kashmir, then you will have to divide one with the other 30,84,417/70,884= 43.51. When rounded off to the next whole number, it will AGAIN be 44.
This means that instead of the present 37 MLAs, the Jammu region would get 44 seats, an addition of 7 MLAs.
EQUATION 3:
Total voters in Kashmirr= 32,60,663
Average size of a constituency in Jammu= 83,362.
Now, if the same number of voters as in Jammu were to elect an MLA, we will need to divide one with the other and this will be 32,60,663/83,362= 38.97. Rounded off to the next whole number, this will be 40.
This means that if the average number of voters in Kashmir were to be the same, as it was in Jammu, the Kashmir valley will be able to send only 40 MLAs to the Assembly.
The number of legislators in Kashmir will thus get reduced from 46 to 40. This will still be higher as compared to Jammu (having 37 MLAs) but the difference will not be 46-37= 9, as it is at present.
It will only be 40 for Kashmir as compared to 37 for Jammu. This means a mere difference of 40-37= 3. Only three.
EQUATION 4:
Average size of a constituency in Jammu= 83,362.
Average size of a constituency in Kashmir= 70,884
Difference in the numbers = 12,478
That means an average constituency in Jammu has 12,478 ADDITIONAL voters per constituency.
Now, let us assume that the average number of voters in Kashmir is higher by 12,478 as compared to the Jammu constituencies.
The number of voters per constituency in Kashmir will then be 83,362+ 12,478= 95,840.
Divide the total electorate in Kashmir with this number now
That means 32,60,663/95,840= 34.02. On rounding off, it will become 34. This means that if the number of voters per constituency in Kashmir were to be higher, as compared to the constituencies of the Jammu region, by the same number of voters, the total number of MLAs the province will get to elect is only 34.
This means that its total number of MLAs will go down from 46-34= 12.
One MLA in Jammu will be elected by 83,362 voters, on an average.
One MLA in Kashmir will be elected by 70,884 voters, on an average.
Therefore, one MLA in Jammu= 83,362 voters
Similarly, one MLA in Kashmir= 70,884 voters
Can we also say that?
83,362 people in Jammu region= 70,884 people of the Kashmir region.
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They will not be in 2008.
This is just wishful thinking.
In practice, if that happens, the Kashmir issue is 99 per cent resolved.